Van de Poppe: waiting to buy bitcoin at USD 40,000 is "a stupid idea"

• Van de Poppe sees it feasible to buy bitcoin at USD 60,000 if one has a long-term perspective.
• Analysts projecting a further decline in bitcoin base their views on its four-year cycle.

While some investors sit on their hands waiting for a crash that would allow them to acquire bitcoin (BTC) at a bargain price, trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that staying out of the market waiting for $40,000 is "a stupid idea to opt for." For the specialist, the real danger is not the drop, but the paralysis in the face of a bottom that may never arrive.

Van de Poppe harshly questioned this passive waiting stance by posing direct risk management questions: "What if that doesn’t happen? What’s the plan B?" the Dutch analyst commented on July 18, 2026, on his X account.

The specialist argued that retail investor psychology often works against them in times of high volatility. According to his view, postponing purchases in search of an exact minimum price causes many to end up acquiring the asset at much higher values during euphoric stages. "Most of those people will then buy back at $90,000 per bitcoin," he concluded.

For van de Poppe, the current trading ranges around $64,280 already offer a highly attractive entry window for profiles with medium- to long-term goals. "I think buying bitcoin at $60,000 is such a phenomenal opportunity that, if you have a 2-5 year horizon, it’s something you should accumulate first," he expressed. The price of bitcoin has fallen 44% in the last year. Source: TradingView.

Despite his optimism at current levels, the analyst does not completely rule out a deeper correction in bitcoin’s price, although he prefers not to base his operations solely on that possibility.

If there’s another drop to $40,000, sure, that would provide an even greater opportunity; however, I wouldn’t bet blindly on that scenario from here.

Michaël van de Poppe, trader and financial analyst.

The trader’s stance directly clashes with the technical projections of other prominent analysts, who maintain that the digital currency still needs to purge excesses before starting a new bullish cycle.

Bearish and cautious views {#h-bearish-and-cautious-views}

Spanish trader Pablo Gil believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the bottom of its current corrective cycle and sees the retracement as very feasible, as reported by CriptoNoticias.

"Considering the correction patterns that each crypto winter has had after halvings throughout bitcoin's life, we could see prices of $38,000 or $40,000 per BTC," Gil stated. The crypto winter refers to a prolonged period of declining prices and stagnation in the market.

It is worth clarifying that the halving Gil refers to is a scheduled event that halves the issuance of new coins approximately every four years. Historically, this scarcity mechanism is often associated with long-term bullish cycles, but after reaching the highs of each cycle, strong corrections have also been recorded. The last Bitcoin halving was in April 2024. Source: Bitbo.

In line with Gil, analyst James Foord agrees that the price is heading towards the levels that Van de Poppe suggests to ignore. "The 4-year cycle, technical indicators, and macroeconomic outlooks are aligning to indicate that bitcoin will reach its lowest point," Foord explained while assessing the global landscape.

The researcher anticipates a trend reversal for next year, once the price capitulation is complete. "I believe we will soon see bitcoin hit bottom and start outperforming other assets next year," noted Foord, who also reaffirmed his exact numerical forecast: "I have already set a target of $40,000 for the price of bitcoin in a bear market."

The estimated timing for this decline aligns with global macroeconomic projections. "My main thesis is that we can achieve this in the next 4 months, which is supported by the 4-year cycle and now also by the macroeconomic outlook," Foord detailed regarding the timeframe for the drop.

Macroeconomic Factors That Could Influence Bitcoin's Decline

The monetary policy of the United States plays a key role in this bearish forecast. Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Kevin Warsh is trying to adopt a more restrictive stance on high interest rates. When rates are high, investors seek refuge in low-risk assets with guaranteed returns, such as Treasury bonds, which depresses bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

However, Foord pointed out that Warsh was chosen with the intention of cutting interest rates. The official was Donald Trump's personal bet to achieve lower interest rates. For this reason, the analyst predicts that the FED could soon find the perfect excuse to apply these stimuli and initiate a loosening in the economy.

Under this premise, when interest rates are low, the cost of borrowing decreases and there is more liquidity in the system. In these scenarios, risk appetite increases, and investors opt for stocks, bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies in search of higher profits, marking the end of the price contraction trend.

This analysis is complemented by Willy Woo, an on-chain data specialist, who projected that the $45,000 zone would represent a typical low for bear markets for bitcoin, basing his stance on the decline in trading volume.

Woo diagnoses a simultaneous deterioration of liquidity in both spot markets, where the actual asset is exchanged, and futures markets, which operate with derivative price contracts. "I have never seen bitcoin rise when both sources of liquidity are bearish," stated the data analyst.

This scarcity of circulating capital would prolong the bearish trend for several additional months before seeing a solid recovery. Woo estimated that the fourth quarter of 2026 would be the most likely period for the end of the bear market, with bullish momentum returning only in the first or second quarter of 2027.

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